Geopolitics and Security Alliances

Semiconductor industry reshapes amid U.S.-China tensions and techno-nationalism.

The global semiconductor industry is undergoing profound changes amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, primarily driven by the competitive dynamics between the United States and China. As of October 2025, the industry faces significant restructuring influenced by “techno-nationalism,” with crucial supply chains fragmenting due to stringent U.S. export controls aimed at curbing China’s military modernization and AI advancements. Notably, the stalled deal between Nvidia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to supply advanced AI chips exemplifies the complexities entangling international technology collaborations, where national security concerns have led to scrutiny over potential technology diversion to China. This has significant implications for the UAE’s ambitions to become an AI hub, as the delay in acquiring Nvidia’s advanced chips poses challenges to its economic growth projections. The broader significance of these developments lies in the transformation of semiconductors into strategic assets akin to oil in the 20th century, where access to advanced chips is now essential for national security and economic competitiveness, thus reshaping the global power landscape. As nations prioritize domestic technological self-sufficiency and the race for AI supremacy intensifies, the potential bifurcation of global technological ecosystems becomes increasingly apparent, raising concerns about reduced collaboration and innovation as countries align themselves within U.S.-led or China-led technological blocs.

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