NATO officials have reported a significant decline in Russia’s naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea in 2025, primarily due to operational readiness challenges and Moscow’s strategic shift focusing on the Baltic Sea and High North regions. The longstanding Russian naval base at Tartus in Syria, essential for replenishment and repairs since 1971, was lost in January 2025 following the new Syrian government’s termination of Russia’s access agreement after Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell in late 2024. This loss has severely constrained Russia’s operational capability in the Mediterranean, forcing naval assets to endure longer transit from distant bases in the Baltic or Black Sea. Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean have dwindled from a robust fleet, including multiple submarines and surface ships during the 2018 Syria crisis, to only a few units, including the Kilo-class submarine Novorossiysk which experienced technical issues near the Strait of Gibraltar recently. Additionally, Russia’s attempt to expand footholds such as Port Sudan has faced setbacks. Meanwhile, NATO and allied naval forces maintain strong presence and surveillance in the region, underscoring a growing disparity in maritime power. The situation marks a clear erosion of Russia’s maritime influence in the Mediterranean, signaling strategic and logistical challenges restricting its power projection from an Indian geopolitical perspective.