A newly declassified CIA memorandum from March 1983 reveals that the Reagan administration viewed a sharp drop in global oil prices as a strategic inflection point for South Asia. The document highlights that declining oil prices would disproportionately impact Pakistan, which relied heavily on Gulf aid and remittances, while India would benefit from lower energy costs despite reduced remittances. The memo cautions that increased U.S. military support for Pakistan risked undermining the recent thaw in U.S.-India relations under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who was seeking a neutral stance between the superpowers. This assessment was made as both India and Pakistan navigated Cold War alignments, high oil import bills, and nuclear ambitions, with Washington weighing the broader implications for regional stability and its own foreign policy leverage.