Geopolitics and Security Alliances

Russian analysts question reliability of Ukraine's reported soldier casualties.

Independent Russian analysts, including Mediazona and the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), have cast doubt on the reliability of leaked Ukrainian military intelligence suggesting nearly 87,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the first eight months of 2025. CIT employed forensic statistical methods to identify anomalies in the data, concluding that the chance of the reported figures occurring randomly is extremely low, indicating potential manipulation. Concerns were raised regarding missing figures on desertions and the lack of clear documentation surrounding the leaked records, suggesting bureaucratic inconsistencies. The broader significance lies in the implications of manipulated casualty figures on public perception and military accountability within Russia, emphasizing the complexities in assessing the true costs of the ongoing conflict.

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